본 연구는 한국복지패널조사 제2차년도 조사(2007년 조사)부터 제8차년도 조사(2013년 조사)까지의 7년간 자료를 결합하여 빈곤진입 영향요인을 이산시간위험모델에 의해 분석하였다.
분석결과, 첫째, 연령이 많을수록, 사별？이혼과 미혼이 유배우보다, 사적이전소득 없음이 500만원 미만보다, 실업자, 자영업, 임시？일용직이 상용직보다, 미취업, 농？임？어업 종사가 행정？교육？보건？복지 업종 종사보다, 미취업, 농？임？어업, 단순노무직, 서비스？판매직 종사가 전문？사무직 종사보다 빈곤진입 가능성이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 교육수준이 높을수록, 건강상태가 좋을수록, 취업가구원수가 많을수록, 공적이전소득 없음과 500만원 이상이 500만원 미만보다, 사적이전소득 500만원 이상이 500만원 미만보다 빈곤진입 가능성이 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 비빈곤 기간이 길어질수록 빈곤진입 가능성이 낮아지는 것으로 나타났다.
빈곤진입 예방방안 마련에 도움을 줄 수 있는 시사점은, 첫째 안정되고 질 좋은 일자리를 창출할 수 있는 경제정책이 마련？실시되어야 하고, 둘째 실직, 노령으로 인한 소득 상실？감소 시 일정수준 이상의 소득이 유지되도록 하는 사회보장제도가 마련？실시되어야 하며, 셋째 적극적노동시장정책을 확대하고 전문화？체계화 할 필요가 있고, 넷째 모든 국민이 경제적 부담 없이 교육을 받을 수 있는 교육제도가 마련되어야 하며, 다섯째 빈곤층이 경제적 부담을 느끼지 않고 치료를 받을 수 있는 건강보장제도가 마련될 필요가 있고, 여섯째 가족해체를 예방하고, 해체가족을 지원하는 방안이 마련될 필요가 있다.
This study analyzes the factors influencing poverty-entry by discrete time hazard models based on pooling waves of the second through the eighth(2007-2013) Korean Welfare Panel Study.
The results of the analysis are summarized as follows. First, persons who are older in age, persons who are bereaved, divorced or unmarried in comparison with married persons who have spouses, persons who don't receive any private transfer income in comparison with those who receive private transfer income of less than five million won, the unemployed, the self employed, temporary employees in comparison with regular employees, the persons who don't have jobs or persons who work in agriculture, forestry or fishery businesses in comparison with those who work in administration, education, health or welfare business, and the persons who don't have jobs, persons who work in agriculture, forestry or fishery jobs, in simple labor jobs, or in service or sales jobs in comparison with those who work in office or specialized jobs are more likely to enter poverty. Second, persons who have higher educational attainment, persons who are healthier, persons who have more employed household members, persons who receive none or more than five hundred won of public transfer income in comparison with those who receive public transfer income of less than five million won, and persons who receive private transfer income of more than five million won in comparison with those who receive private transfer income of less than five million won are less likely to enter poverty. Third, persons who maintain a state of non-poverty for a longer period are less likely to enter poverty.
The implications for preparing prevention measures of poverty-entry are as follows. First, economic policies which can create stable and high quality jobs should be established and carried out. Second, a social security system which can guarantee a certain level of income in case of loss or decrease of income due to unemployment or old age must be introduced and carried out. Third, it is necessary to expand, systematize and specialize active labor market policies. Fourth, an educational system in which every citizen can receive education without economic burden should be introduced. Fifth, a health security system which allows treatment for the poor without financial burden need to be introduced. Sixth, plans which can prevent family dissolution and support dissolved families need to be prepared.
